Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DC 0xdcf9…da3c other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 557d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%41W / 1L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$3
crypto 21% +$4
world 10% +$2
politics 6% $0
tech 2% +$1
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.8%
all 42 -1.2% -10.6% 98% 2% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 2% -8.8%
10% -19.1% 0% -17.5%
15% -27.0% 0% -25.5%
20% -34.1% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.67 per $1 lost it wins $5.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

557d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses41 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage557d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $54 $53 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$9.00 on the final day of trading of th Jun 18 $64 $0 +0%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $168 in May? Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 12 $69 $0 +0%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? Apr 20 $41 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 20 $53 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 28 $41 +$2 +4%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 2? Mar 12 $21 +$1 +2%
Will Zhipu Robotics have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gal Feb 19 $57 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Feb 04 $53 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026? Jan 21 $29 $0 +1%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 08 $28 $0 +1%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30? Nov 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 25 $28 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Oct 03 $28 $0 +1%
US strikes Yemen by August 31? Sep 01 $27 $0 +2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22? Jul 24 $43 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 80 times May 30–June 6? Jun 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 2–9? May 10 $67 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 21? Apr 22 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? Apr 16 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 10? Apr 12 $33 +$2 +5%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Solana hit $300 in March? Apr 01 $19 $0 +1%
Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? Mar 28 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 24? Mar 25 $29 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? Mar 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 08 $56 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6000 by February 28 2025? Mar 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 02 $20 $0 +0%
Was Milei hacked? Feb 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Jan 17-24? Feb 02 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $30 $0 +1%
Will Biden pardon Diddy? Jan 21 $28 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? Jan 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Yoon arrested by Friday? Jan 04 $79 +$1 +1%
MetaMask airdrop in 2024? Jan 03 $19 $0 +1%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Jan 03 $30 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 03 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in June? BUY No 100¢ $54 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$9.00 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$9.00 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 100¢ $59 10d
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $168 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 33d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $69 50d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? BUY No 99¢ $41 70d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 70d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY No 96¢ $41 101d
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 2? BUY Up 98¢ $21 114d
Will Zhipu Robotics have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gal BUY No 100¢ $57 127d
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $53 146d
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 166d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $28 201d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 230d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $28 254d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? BUY No 99¢ $28 274d
US strikes Yemen by August 31? BUY No 98¢ $27 300d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22? BUY No 100¢ $43 336d
Will Elon tweet less than 80 times May 30–June 6? BUY No 100¢ $43 388d
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 2–9? BUY No 100¢ $67 410d
Ethereum Up or Down on April 21? BUY Up 97¢ $18 428d
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? BUY No 99¢ $49 438d
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 10? BUY Up 95¢ $33 440d
Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? BUY Yes 99¢ $19 452d
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 24? BUY Up 100¢ $29 456d
Will Solana hit $300 in March? BUY No 99¢ $19 466d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 89¢ $12 466d
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $37 467d
Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 28 - March 7? BUY No 100¢ $56 475d
Was Milei hacked? BUY No 100¢ $12 493d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.49 · official $53.49 (match) · 89 history records