Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:01:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DC
0xdcf8…e0d7
other · 35 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$34 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$34 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses2 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage550d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit46%
Chart Positions 0 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? Sep 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 18 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jul 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Giants win the 2026 NFC Championship? Jul 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jul 11 $5 $0 -0%
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -9%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series? Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 11 $39 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 11 $6 $0 -0%
Aston Villa wins the Premier League? May 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2025? Apr 26 $7 $0 -0%
Flames vs. Ducks Apr 10 $29 +$35 +122%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? Mar 28 $1 $0 -2%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $1 −$1 -50%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $5 $0 -0%
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? Jan 03 $0 $0 -39%
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 11 $304 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% +$35
other 18% −$1
politics 7% $0
world 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 1h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 24d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 24d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 47d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 48d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $10 60d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $10 89d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 108d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 108d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $11 137d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $11 137d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 172d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 172d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 200d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 200d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 228d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 228d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 252d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 256d
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? SELL No 99¢ $5 268d
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? BUY No 100¢ $5 268d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 293d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 293d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 293d
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $6 306d
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $6 306d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 330d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 331d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 331d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 35 -4.1% -13.2% 6% 3% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 3% -4.0%
10% -21.5% 3% -13.2%
15% -29.1% 3% -21.6%
20% -36.1% 3% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records