Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DC 0xdcf8…ad2f sports 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$479 (-28%) realized −$477 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%25W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$486
14 days−$486
30 days−$493
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$102
politics 42% −$425
other 12% +$24
crypto 1% −$13
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +2.9% -6.9% 61% 58% -36.7%
≤30d 41 -2.1% -11.4% 59% 54% -36.6%
≤90d 51 -18.6% -26.3% 49% 45% -37.3%
all 51 -18.6% -26.3% 49% 45% -37.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 45% -37.3%
10% -33.4% 33% -43.3%
15% -39.8% 24% -48.7%
20% -45.7% 10% -53.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$27 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$477
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses25 / 26
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 55
History coverage76d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will Renovación Popular (RP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? Yes 29¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$11 +73%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $12 +$3 +21%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 +$2 +23%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$2 -21%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 −$1 -21%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +172%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $12 −$2 -16%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $8 +$4 +51%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $6 +$2 +38%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $7 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -65%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$11 -87%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $19 −$7 -36%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $3 +$4 +118%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $223 −$212 -95%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $141 +$56 +40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $21 +$4 +20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $139 +$17 +12%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $4 +$2 +50%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $113 +$31 +27%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $46 +$17 +36%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $7 +$1 +21%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$3 +82%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 −$6 -56%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $30 +$3 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $8 +$2 +24%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $2 +$1 +46%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $23 +$4 +16%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential el Jun 11 $2 −$2 -64%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $688 −$402 -58%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $7 $0 +4%
SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5 May 31 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? May 28 $9 +$3 +31%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in third place in the first round of the 20 May 28 $3 −$1 -29%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elec Apr 13 $2 −$2 -88%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elec Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Roberto Sánchez Palomino advance to the r Apr 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $2 +$1 +26%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elec Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elec Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $23 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 AND Uzbe BUY 28¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $25 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $15 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $12 7h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $12 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $0 7h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 81¢ $9 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 62¢ $7 8h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 41¢ $2 8h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $10 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND A BUY $1 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 70¢ $10 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 82¢ $12 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $12 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $8 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $6 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 SELL Over 68¢ $6 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $7 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up $2 40h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 22¢ $1 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 82¢ $12 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 49¢ $12 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $19 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.61 · official $25.77 · 116 history records