Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:15:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdcf6…179b crypto 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+2%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate63%41W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$5
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -4.8% -13.9% 62% 38% -17.7%
≤30d 65 -2.9% -12.2% 63% 46% -12.9%
≤90d 65 -2.9% -12.2% 63% 46% -12.9%
all 65 -2.9% -12.2% 63% 46% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 46% -12.9%
10% -20.6% 26% -21.3%
15% -28.3% 15% -28.9%
20% -35.3% 9% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses41 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage11d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 07 $11 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 06 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 06 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 06 $4 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 06 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 06 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 184 history records