Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:04:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DC 0xdcf3…6968 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-13%) realized −$29 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$27
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$3
sports 30% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +17.0% +5.8% 80% 80% +10.6%
≤30d 7 -16.5% -24.4% 57% 57% -16.8%
≤90d 7 -16.5% -24.4% 57% 57% -16.8%
all 7 -16.5% -24.4% 57% 57% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 57% -16.8%
10% -31.6% 57% -24.8%
15% -38.2% 57% -32.1%
20% -44.3% 0% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$20 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage9d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Yes 33¢ 40¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 64¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$15 +50%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $20 54m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $20 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 4h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 2d
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.04 · official $43.04 (match) · 13 history records