Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:04:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdcf3…0f18 crypto 110 markets active 1d ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$44 (-10%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate53%58W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$62
14 days−$59
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -54.5% -58.8% 29% 11% -40.3%
≤30d 88 -28.2% -35.1% 44% 30% -31.0%
≤90d 110 -17.3% -25.2% 53% 35% -20.4%
all 110 -17.3% -25.2% 53% 35% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 35% -20.4%
10% -32.3% 28% -28.1%
15% -38.9% 19% -35.0%
20% -44.9% 17% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses58 / 52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 110
History coverage88d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $47 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $22 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$6 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 02 $2 +$3 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 30 $2 +$2 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 30 $3 +$7 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 30 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 30 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 30 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 30 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 30 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 30 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 30 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 30 $11 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $39 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $22 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $21 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 280 history records