Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:11:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdcf0…93f8 crypto 192 markets active 1d ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$226 (-3%) realized −$226 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate61%118W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day54.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$204
other 3% −$250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -4.2% -13.3% 60% 28% -20.0%
≤30d 192 +2.7% -7.1% 61% 39% -15.5%
≤90d 192 +2.7% -7.1% 61% 39% -15.5%
all 192 +2.7% -7.1% 61% 39% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 39% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 28% -23.6%
15% -24.1% 21% -31.0%
20% -31.6% 16% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$20 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$226
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses118 / 74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)192 / 192
History coverage7d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day54.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 192 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $82 −$63 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $81 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $82 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $81 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $161 −$25 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $81 +$17 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $81 −$26 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $242 −$14 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $200 +$27 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $162 +$30 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $81 −$14 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $190 −$12 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $82 −$17 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$13 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $200 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $309 +$87 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$13 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $61 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $58 −$56 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $61 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $62 −$52 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$5 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $19 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $82 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $81 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $81 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $93 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $82 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $80 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $89 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $81 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $137 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $81 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $80 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $81 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $55 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $81 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $81 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $123 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $80 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $81 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $39 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $81 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $81 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $81 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $81 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $67 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $81 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $80 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 487 history records