Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:29:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DC 0xdcef…c9ce other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-9%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$568
sports 17% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.7% -12.0% 67% 56% +36.8%
≤30d 9 -2.7% -12.0% 67% 56% +36.8%
≤90d 9 -2.7% -12.0% 67% 56% +36.8%
all 9 -2.7% -12.0% 67% 56% +36.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 56% +36.8%
10% -20.4% 44% +23.7%
15% -28.1% 33% +11.8%
20% -35.2% 33% +0.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +51% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$35 · ×2.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.44 per $1 lost it wins $5.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $709 +$548 +77%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$6 +55%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +86%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +31%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $50 +$3 +6%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 26¢ $61 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 62¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 62¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 62¢ $23 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 62¢ $8 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 63¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 62¢ $51 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 63¢ $101 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 62¢ $61 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 61¢ $101 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 64¢ $10 23h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 51¢ $51 24h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Haiti 85¢ $50 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 25h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 41h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 70¢ $5 45h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $50 46h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records