Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:30:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DC 0xdcef…3599 crypto 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+1%) realized +$56 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$410now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$63
crypto 29% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -9.8% -18.4% 0% 0% -14.5%
≤30d 6 -11.9% -20.3% 50% 33% -10.6%
≤90d 6 -11.9% -20.3% 50% 33% -10.6%
all 6 -11.9% -20.3% 50% 33% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 33% -10.6%
10% -27.9% 17% -19.2%
15% -34.9% 0% -27.0%
20% -41.2% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$29 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$410
Realized+$56
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage16d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 84¢ 78¢ $439 $410 −$29 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $104 −$17 -16%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $523 −$18 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1PM ET Jun 05 $353 +$51 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 05 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 05 $158 +$15 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $163 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $16 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $58 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $42 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $26 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $19 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $87 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $200 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $147 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $196 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $6 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $54 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $0 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $34 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $104 2h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $103 2h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $505 2h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $523 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $32 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $410.12 · official $410.12 (match) · 40 history records