Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DC 0xdcee…bda5 other 172 markets active 4h ago coverage 247d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 246d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,791 (+3%) realized +$11,858 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate47%81W / 90L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$2,055per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$12,013now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days+$697
14 days−$363
30 days−$658
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 44% +$1,808
other 36% +$6,180
politics 17% +$1,826
world 1% −$187
finance 1% −$705
sports 1% +$343
crypto 0% −$170
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -48.3% -53.2% 33% 20% -7.5%
≤30d 53 -46.5% -51.6% 28% 15% -10.0%
≤90d 107 -31.9% -38.4% 37% 22% -8.3%
all 171 -15.6% -23.6% 47% 25% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.6% 25% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 18% -15.8%
15% -37.6% 11% -24.0%
20% -43.7% 8% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$693) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
13.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$215 vs −$93 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$12,013
Realized+$11,858
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses81 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions46
Markets (closed)171 / 172
History coverage247d ⚠
Avg bet$2,055
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 77¢ 80¢ $6,505 $6,831 +$326 (+5%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 46¢ 44¢ $1,708 $1,617 −$91 (-5%)
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? Yes 56¢ 70¢ $1,101 $1,369 +$269 (+24%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 19¢ $341 $682 +$341 (+100%)
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting? Yes 26¢ 52¢ $162 $320 +$158 (+97%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 23¢ $411 $275 −$136 (-33%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $361 $203 −$157 (-44%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $367 $131 −$236 (-64%)
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting? Yes 74¢ 26¢ $276 $97 −$179 (-65%)
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by December 31? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $65 $67 +$2 (+3%)
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting? No 62¢ 74¢ $54 $64 +$10 (+19%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
GTA VI released before November 2026? Yes 20¢ 4¢ $190 $42 −$148 (-78%)
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting? No 51¢ 59¢ $31 $35 +$5 (+15%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $10 $34 +$24 (+239%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $10 $27 +$17 (+173%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $10 $24 +$14 (+137%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+47%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+35%)
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? No 46¢ 30¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-35%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $476 +$139 +29%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 26 $417 +$15 +4%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 25 $5,299 +$186 +4%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 25 $2,749 −$73 -3%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a Jun 25 $348 −$90 -26%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $121 +$46 +38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $218 +$82 +38%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 25 $4,584 +$324 +7%
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting? Jun 24 $742 +$167 +22%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $219 −$141 -64%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $458 −$452 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $481 +$145 +30%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 22 $1,842 −$205 -11%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $6,801 +$295 +4%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 22 $5,243 +$569 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 22 $532 −$169 -32%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 19 $2,556 −$105 -4%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 18 $21,644 +$1,477 +7%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $4,136 −$732 -18%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 17 $35,858 −$1,016 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $77 −$76 -99%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $21,202 −$677 -3%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July Jun 17 $9 −$1 -13%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ Jun 17 $11 +$1 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $613 +$83 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $147 −$14 -10%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $191 +$152 +79%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 10 $1,464 +$94 +6%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% in May? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -95%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in May? Jun 09 $8 −$7 -95%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May? Jun 09 $29 −$28 -99%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 09 $88 −$84 -96%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 09 $665 −$57 -8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $219 −$156 -71%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 03 $46 −$12 -27%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of June 202 Jun 02 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 80¢ $7,578 3h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 65¢ $30 21h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 65¢ $222 21h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 64¢ $47 21h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 61¢ $25 21h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 60¢ $106 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 95¢ $189 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 90¢ $180 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 89¢ $425 21h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 3¢ $55 27h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY No 46¢ $14 27h
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rat BUY No 63¢ $3 27h
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rat BUY No 62¢ $52 27h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 61¢ $47 28h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 61¢ $180 28h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 56¢ $41 28h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 55¢ $47 28h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 53¢ $38 28h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $49 28h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $80 28h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 78¢ $7,097 45h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 80¢ $5,484 46h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL No 65¢ $1,508 46h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $168 47h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 47h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 47h
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rat BUY No 51¢ $32 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 3¢ $16 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 3¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,013.03 · official $12,013.03 (match) · 3500 history records