Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:16:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdceb…4db7 crypto 1363 markets active 5d ago coverage 54d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$122 (-2%) realized −$122 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate24%331W / 1032L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$57
14 days−$98
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 +86.7% +68.9% 71% 59% -17.0%
≤30d 113 +69.5% +53.4% 68% 55% -22.1%
≤90d 1363 +5.6% -4.5% 24% 14% -10.9%
all 1363 +5.6% -4.5% 24% 14% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 14% -10.9%
10% -13.6% 8% -19.4%
15% -22.0% 6% -27.2%
20% -29.6% 4% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses331 / 1032
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1363 / 1363
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1363 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$5 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +29%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.39 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records