Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:59:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdcea…a91c other 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$256 (-11%) realized −$205 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate21%28W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$220
7 days−$111
14 days−$248
30 days−$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$288
sports 13% +$245
crypto 10% −$135
world 6% −$130
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -28.7% -35.5% 27% 27% -17.2%
≤30d 130 +0.3% -9.2% 22% 21% -20.4%
≤90d 132 -1.2% -10.6% 21% 20% -21.2%
all 132 -1.2% -10.6% 21% 20% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 20% -21.2%
10% -19.2% 20% -28.7%
15% -27.0% 19% -35.6%
20% -34.1% 17% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$11 · ×2.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$205
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses28 / 104
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)132 / 134
History coverage39d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $50 $5 −$45 (-90%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$26 +510%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $6 +$10 +158%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Petar Musa: 1+ goals Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$33 +650%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $151 +$66 +44%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$176 +172%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $109 +$57 +52%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 40m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 21h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 22h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 22h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 23h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 24h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 45h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 45h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 46h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 46h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 46h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 46h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Petar Musa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $3 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 2d
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.30 · official $9.62 (match) · 211 history records