Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:08:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DC 0xdce9…ad7f other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,049 (-39%) realized −$927 · open −$122
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$443per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$1,154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 25d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 87% −$1,211
other 13% +$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +40.6% +27.2% 67% 67% +55.5%
≤30d 4 +5.5% -4.6% 50% 50% -76.7%
≤90d 4 +5.5% -4.6% 50% 50% -76.7%
all 4 +5.5% -4.6% 50% 50% -76.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 50% -76.7%
10% -13.7% 50% -78.9%
15% -22.0% 50% -80.9%
20% -29.7% 50% -82.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -74% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$565 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$1,154
Realized−$927
Unrealized−$122
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage25d
Avg bet$443
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 21¢ 18¢ $1,116 $996 −$121 (-11%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $160 $158 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$131 +129%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $51 +$47 +93%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $1,144 −$1,090 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,153.91 · official $1,153.91 (match) · 18 history records