Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdce9…1587 world 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 271d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$39 (-7%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%9W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$20
politics 19% −$10
other 15% $0
culture 8% $0
sports 6% −$1
economics 3% −$8
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -6.4% -15.3% 17% 0% -17.9%
≤90d 7 -5.6% -14.6% 14% 0% -16.5%
all 30 -9.6% -18.2% 30% 0% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -15.8%
10% -26.0% 0% -23.8%
15% -33.2% 0% -31.2%
20% -39.7% 0% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses9 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage271d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $34 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $18 −$3 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $75 −$17 -22%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $46 $0 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jan 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Russia capture Sumy by December 31? Dec 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 07 $1 −$1 -62%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 14 $1 $0 -29%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 31 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 31 $8 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 28 $8 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 27 $18 −$10 -56%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $19 $0 -1%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 29 $27 $0 +1%
TikTok sale announced by September 30? Sep 28 $9 $0 +1%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $2 $0 -2%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $36 21m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $36 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $26 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $9 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $1 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $17 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $18 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $34 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $28 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $14 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $22 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $4 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 6¢ $3 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 6¢ $1 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 6¢ $2 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $42 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 92¢ $41 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $36 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $52 31d
Will Russia capture Sumy by December 31? SELL No 99¢ $10 194d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 198d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY No 29¢ $8 227d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 98¢ $8 235d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $8 235d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records