Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdce8…8663 world 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$961 (-2%) realized −$972 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate55%57W / 47L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$367per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$979now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$116
7 days−$51
14 days−$57
30 days−$340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$1,165
sports 22% −$111
other 10% +$56
finance 3% +$108
politics 2% +$62
crypto 1% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -8.4% -17.1% 25% 12% -12.3%
≤30d 37 -3.9% -13.0% 46% 19% -12.8%
≤90d 96 -4.5% -13.6% 56% 18% -12.4%
all 104 -4.3% -13.5% 55% 17% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 17% -12.1%
10% -21.7% 5% -20.5%
15% -29.3% 3% -28.2%
20% -36.2% 3% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$510) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$71 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$979
Realized−$972
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses57 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)104 / 107
History coverage98d
Avg bet$367
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $626 $608 −$18 (-3%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Yes 87¢ 98¢ $177 $201 +$24 (+13%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 67¢ 69¢ $165 $170 +$5 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $74 −$5 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $78 −$2 -2%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $159 −$94 -59%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $180 +$20 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 16 $447 −$34 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $716 +$65 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $633 −$7 -1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 03 $1,466 −$83 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 30 $928 +$32 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 29 $327 +$52 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 28 $196 +$3 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 28 $386 +$9 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 27 $164 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $14 +$3 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $2 −$1 -54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 26 $106 −$30 -28%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 26 $176 +$42 +24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $5 $0 -7%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $21 −$3 -12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $6 +$8 +125%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $94 −$68 -72%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 24 $91 −$11 -12%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $11 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $148 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $383 +$8 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 23 $143 +$72 +51%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 23 $73 +$7 +10%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $204 +$18 +9%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 22 $508 +$29 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $599 −$405 -68%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $389 +$57 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 20 $317 −$22 -7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $190 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $37 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $357 +$24 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $359 +$64 +18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $209 +$22 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 15 $619 +$26 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 11 $669 +$32 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 09 $158 +$17 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $524 +$22 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026? May 08 $76 +$3 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 07 $230 +$7 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 06 $167 +$24 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 06 $16 −$8 -52%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 06 $558 +$20 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $97 +$7 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 87¢ $177 37m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 34¢ $35 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 35¢ $34 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $74 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $76 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $78 2h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $20 2h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 2h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $9 2h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 2h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $33 2h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 2h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 6h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $79 8h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 12h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 12h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 12h
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 25h
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 26h
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 27h
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 67¢ $130 28h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $180 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 83¢ $414 36h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 88¢ $447 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $209 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $188 7d
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 73¢ $207 9d
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 67¢ $22 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $979.23 · official $979.25 (match) · 655 history records