Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:45:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DC 0xdce8…95d4 crypto 54 markets active 2d ago coverage 548d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$2,196 (-17%) realized −$2,196 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate67%36W / 18L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$583
14 days−$583
30 days−$583
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$1,205
politics 22% +$77
tech 10% −$428
other 6% −$791
world 2% +$41
finance 2% +$9
sports 0% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -9.2% -17.9% 68% 42% -26.1%
≤30d 19 -9.2% -17.9% 68% 42% -26.1%
≤90d 41 -6.1% -15.1% 71% 51% -23.4%
all 54 -10.7% -19.2% 67% 44% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 44% -25.6%
10% -26.9% 26% -32.7%
15% -34.0% 13% -39.2%
20% -40.4% 7% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$190 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

548d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,196
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses36 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage548d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $35 +$8 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $204 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 10 $65 −$61 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $605 −$605 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $607 +$121 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $704 −$67 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $53 −$46 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $126 +$22 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $131 +$96 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 09 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 28 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 28 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 23 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 23 $870 −$100 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 23 $100 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 23 $200 +$33 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 23 $100 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 23 $100 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 23 $200 +$53 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 23 $100 +$105 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 23 $120 +$28 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 23 $300 +$88 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 23 $696 −$696 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 23 $100 −$97 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 23 $100 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 23 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 23 $300 +$86 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 23 $100 +$60 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 23 $100 +$27 +27%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 23 $300 +$41 +14%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 11 $60 +$27 +45%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 11 $285 +$15 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 29? Feb 11 $300 +$9 +3%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? Jan 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released by June 30? Jan 22 $130 −$130 -100%
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025? Jan 22 $800 −$800 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Sep 12 $300 +$24 +8%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 8-11%? Jun 03 $20 +$9 +47%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 02 $1,767 +$57 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $19 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $105 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $131 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $65 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $304 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $301 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $380 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $305 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $303 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $637 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $302 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $301 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $107 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $35 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 145 history records