Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdce7…aedc crypto 74 markets active 0h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,131 (-26%) realized −$1,131 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate54%40W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$172
7 days−$195
14 days−$195
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$832
tech 5% −$134
world 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -6.5% -15.4% 57% 43% -16.1%
≤30d 67 -6.5% -15.4% 57% 43% -16.1%
≤90d 67 -6.5% -15.4% 57% 43% -16.1%
all 74 -10.9% -19.4% 54% 41% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 41% -30.6%
10% -27.1% 30% -37.2%
15% -34.1% 19% -43.3%
20% -40.6% 12% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$49 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses40 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage214d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $53 +$78 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $77 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $53 +$118 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $78 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $77 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$23 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $77 +$28 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$28 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $76 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $76 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $76 −$18 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $76 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$1 -2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 16 $216 −$134 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$18 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $52 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$9 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$19 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$29 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $47 −$13 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $98 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $33 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $18 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $37 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $29 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $24 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $32 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $6 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $11 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $147 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $23 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $37 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 229 history records