Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:55:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DC
0xdce7…72d0
other · 46 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$7 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses17 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage455d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 1 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $44 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $40 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 15 $2 $0 +9%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 13 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jul 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 3 Jul 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? Jul 06 $6 $0 -2%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110K in July? Jul 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $6 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jul 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 02 $4 $0 -6%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 08 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? Apr 06 $2 −$1 -26%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will George Russel win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? Apr 03 $2 $0 +6%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 03 $16 $0 -0%
Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April? Apr 02 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $18 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% +$1
world 23% −$1
politics 9% +$1
tech 6% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 3% −$8
culture 3% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $44 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $44 17h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $40 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $40 3d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 333d
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $1 333d
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 90¢ $5 333d
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 91¢ $5 334d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 94¢ $5 334d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $5 334d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $5 334d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $5 334d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 334d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 334d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $7 334d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 92¢ $6 334d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 92¢ $6 334d
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 91¢ $6 335d
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 91¢ $6 335d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? SELL No 93¢ $7 335d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? BUY No 94¢ $7 335d
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? SELL No 89¢ $7 335d
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? BUY No 79¢ $6 338d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $6 338d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 95¢ $6 338d
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election SELL No 95¢ $6 338d
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election BUY No 95¢ $6 339d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? SELL No 94¢ $6 339d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $6 339d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 2 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 2 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
all 45 -2.1% -11.4% 38% 2% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 2% -10.9%
10% -19.9% 0% -19.4%
15% -27.7% 0% -27.2%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.35 · official $2.35 (match) · 129 history records