Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DC 0xdce6…5182 sports 14 markets active 7d ago coverage 102d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$43 (-19%) realized −$39 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$16
politics 34% −$10
sports 15% −$10
crypto 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-58.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +13.2% +2.4% 100% 100% +2.4%
≤30d 4 -20.5% -28.1% 75% 25% -21.8%
≤90d 11 -53.6% -58.0% 36% 18% -43.9%
all 11 -53.6% -58.0% 36% 18% -43.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.0% 18% -43.9%
10% -62.0% 9% -49.3%
15% -65.7% 9% -54.2%
20% -69.1% 9% -58.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage102d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+4%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 42¢ 33¢ $34 $27 −$7 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tucuman: Nick Hardt vs Bruno Fernandez Jun 10 $9 +$1 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $20 $0 +2%
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 05 $17 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Panthers vs. Senators Apr 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Avalanche vs. Stars Apr 09 $8 +$7 +92%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Nets vs. Kings Apr 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 27? Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.61 · official $122.61 (match) · 126 history records