Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:44:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DC 0xdce2…e929 crypto 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate71%22W / 9L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$825per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$15
other 26% −$9
crypto 11% +$2
economics 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 31 +0.1% -9.4% 71% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$1,877) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses22 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage231d
Avg bet$825
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? Jun 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 25 $52 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? May 21 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 22 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 22 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 22 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Hamburger SV win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Mar 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 07 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 12? Feb 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 26? Feb 11 $27 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 19 $4,200 −$4 -0%
Will Hoffenheim win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Jan 19 $4,205 −$4 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 10? Jan 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 05 $3,133 −$3 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 05 $3,138 −$3 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 05 $3,159 −$3 -0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 05 $1,911 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 21? Dec 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on December 10? Dec 21 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 4? Dec 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 1? Dec 03 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 1? Dec 01 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 20? Nov 30 $35 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 07 $1,875 −$4 -0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? Nov 07 $1,877 −$2 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 06 $1,878 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $50 31d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $33 35d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $52 38d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $50 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $109 109d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $190 119d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $20 130d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 130d
Will Hamburger SV win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? BUY No 100¢ $27 130d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 133d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 26? BUY No 100¢ $27 150d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 99¢ $4,196 157d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $4,200 157d
Will Hoffenheim win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? SELL No 100¢ $4,201 157d
Will Hoffenheim win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? BUY No 100¢ $4,205 157d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $33 158d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 159d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 166d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $3,130 170d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $3,133 170d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $3,135 170d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $3,138 171d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $3,156 171d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $3,159 171d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 177d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $40 180d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 186d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on December 10? BUY No 99¢ $30 197d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.97 · official $52.97 (match) · 194 history records