Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:10:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DC
0xdce0…2daf
crypto · 561 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5,667 -28%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,628 · open −$65
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$32
Realized−$5,628
Unrealized−$65
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses170 / 607
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions8
Markets (closed)777 / 561
History coverage59d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day56.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 8 History 777 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,769
7 days−$5,054
14 days−$4,781
30 days−$5,310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 38¢ 38¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 19¢ 18¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-37%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 24¢ 26¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? No 21¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Vålerenga Fotball vs. Lillestrøm SK: O/U 1.5 Under 17¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Magic vs. Cavaliers Magic 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-12-10? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 Under 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-21? No 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? No 7¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Will Norwich City FC vs. Coventry City FC end in a draw? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
SK Brann vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 1.5 Under 25¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5 Under 40¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-02-25? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of November? No 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 Under 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? No 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Magic vs. Cavaliers Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-12-10? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-21? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Norwich City FC vs. Coventry City FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-02-25? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of November? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -106%
76ers vs. Wizards Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-09? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Athletic Club vs. Real Madrid: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 12 $16 −$17 -106%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $4 −$2 -59%
Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2026-02-14? Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-21? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Pacers vs. Hornets Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-18? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tromsø IL win on 2025-11-30? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Trump say "Kamala" or "Harris" during the 2026 State of the Union Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Pistons vs. Wizards Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Malmö FF vs. FK Crvena zvezda end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norwich City FC win on 2026-02-25? Jun 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Jun 12 $166 −$166 -100%
Will Czech Republic win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Wi Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 202 Jun 12 $245 −$232 -95%
OGC Nice vs. Go Ahead Eagles: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AC Milan vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-12-15? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-02-21? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Oxford United FC win on 2026-02-15? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2025-12-07? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Kristiansund BK win on 2026-04-11? Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? Jun 12 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 12 $45 −$15 -34%
Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer? Jun 12 $95 −$95 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-25? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $2 +$20 +1251%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 64% −$959
sports 18% +$209
crypto 16% −$224
finance 1% −$82
tech 0% +$2
economics 0% −$1
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 325 -67.8% -70.9% 8% 8% -75.6%
≤30d 479 -43.1% -48.5% 17% 16% -46.6%
≤90d 777 -26.2% -33.2% 22% 21% -31.8%
all 777 -26.2% -33.2% 22% 21% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover56.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.2% 21% -31.8%
10% ← realistic here -39.6% 20% -38.3%
15% -45.4% 19% -44.3%
20% -50.8% 18% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.49 · official $32.49 (match) · 3500 history records