Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:32:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DC 0xdcdf…8116 sports 241 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized +$87 · open −$107
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%128W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$372
7 days+$474
14 days+$474
30 days+$348
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$10
weather 7% −$71
other 5% +$115
crypto 4% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -12.0% -20.4% 45% 44% +6.6%
≤30d 181 -11.4% -19.8% 53% 48% -3.5%
≤90d 222 -12.5% -20.9% 53% 49% -9.5%
all 234 -11.6% -20.0% 55% 50% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 50% -9.1%
10% -27.6% 40% -17.8%
15% -34.6% 29% -25.8%
20% -41.0% 20% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$33 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized+$87
Unrealized−$107
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses128 / 106
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions7
Markets (closed)234 / 241
History coverage110d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Tereza Valentova Tatjana Maria 59¢ 68¢ $131 $152 +$21 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? Yes 28¢ 2¢ $13 $1 −$12 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 25? No 53¢ 1¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 25? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 25? No 64¢ 0¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 25? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 25? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 91 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 25 $39 +$55 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $40 +$7 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $56 +$12 +20%
ITF Zagreb: Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Kalin Ivanovski Jun 25 $27 −$27 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$10 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 26? Jun 25 $6 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $8 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$4 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $62 +$7 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $100 +$12 +12%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $237 +$98 +42%
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson Jun 24 $53 +$67 +127%
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $69 +$154 +223%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $271 +$97 +36%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 23 $91 +$99 +108%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $74 −$72 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $63 −$62 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $73 −$60 -82%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria Jun 23 $34 +$44 +132%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $34 +$66 +197%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $46 +$3 +7%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $165 +$85 +52%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $167 +$54 +32%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Francesca Jones Jun 22 $40 −$39 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 22 $26 −$26 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $13 +$21 +165%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Hannah Klugman vs Tereza Valentova Jun 22 $37 −$36 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $27 +$12 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $18 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +39%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tatjana Maria 59¢ $131 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $68 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Gabriela Ruse 41¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 75¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 75¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 75¢ $9 4h
ITF Zagreb: Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Kalin Ivanovski BUY Pavlos Tsitsipas 9¢ $1 6h
ITF Zagreb: Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Kalin Ivanovski BUY Pavlos Tsitsipas 9¢ $2 6h
ITF Zagreb: Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Kalin Ivanovski BUY Pavlos Tsitsipas 10¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 85¢ $40 6h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 25? BUY No 53¢ $5 6h
ITF Zagreb: Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Kalin Ivanovski BUY Pavlos Tsitsipas 15¢ $12 7h
ITF Zagreb: Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Kalin Ivanovski BUY Pavlos Tsitsipas 15¢ $1 7h
ITF Zagreb: Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Kalin Ivanovski BUY Pavlos Tsitsipas 15¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $14 7h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 25? BUY No 53¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 25? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 26? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 88¢ $35 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.14 · official $153.14 (match) · 574 history records