Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdcde…cf7e crypto 160 markets active 2h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$97 (+0%) realized +$96 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%153W / 5L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$457per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$599now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$14
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$83
other 0% +$3
world 0% $0
tech 0% +$7
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 33 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 108 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 1% -9.4%
all 158 +0.2% -9.3% 97% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$560) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×49.26 per $1 lost it wins $49.26
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$599
Realized+$96
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses153 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)158 / 160
History coverage288d
Avg bet$457
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $588 $589 +$1 (+0%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 95¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 18? Jun 18 $587 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $587 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 16? Jun 16 $586 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $586 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? Jun 15 $584 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $584 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 13? Jun 13 $583 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Jun 12 $583 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $582 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 10? Jun 11 $581 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $581 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $579 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,350 on June 8? Jun 09 $579 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 1-7? Jun 08 $578 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 on June 6? Jun 07 $577 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 5? Jun 06 $576 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $574 +$3 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 4? Jun 05 $573 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 4? Jun 04 $573 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $572 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $571 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? Jun 01 $571 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 31? Jun 01 $570 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 30? May 30 $570 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 29? May 29 $569 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 28? May 28 $340 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 27? May 27 $228 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 27? May 27 $340 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 26? May 26 $568 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 18-24? May 25 $567 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 23? May 23 $566 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 22? May 22 $565 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? May 20 $564 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 19? May 19 $564 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 11-17? May 18 $563 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 17? May 17 $563 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 16? May 16 $562 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 on May 15? May 16 $561 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 15? May 15 $560 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 14? May 14 $559 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 13? May 13 $559 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 12? May 12 $558 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 11? May 11 $558 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 May 4-10? May 11 $556 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 10? May 10 $556 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 8? May 08 $555 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on May 7? May 07 $555 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 6? May 06 $554 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 5? May 05 $553 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 4? May 04 $47 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $588 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $587 35h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $587 43h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $586 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $586 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $584 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $584 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $583 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $583 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $582 7d
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $581 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $581 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $579 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,350 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $579 11d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $578 11d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $577 13d
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $576 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $574 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $573 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $573 15d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $572 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $571 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $571 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $570 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $570 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $569 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $340 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $228 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $340 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $568 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $598.74 · official $598.74 (match) · 403 history records