Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:33:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdcdd…6d55 sports 1120 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,785 (+8%) realized +$2,788 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%650W / 463L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day30.4pace
Fees−$408est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$70
14 days+$15
30 days−$396
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$150
other 13% +$1,107
world 0% +$12
politics 0% −$3
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +100.8% +81.7% 55% 55% +54.5%
≤30d 141 +7.3% -2.9% 50% 50% -39.9%
≤90d 1113 +3.0% -6.8% 58% 54% -6.4%
all 1113 +3.0% -6.8% 58% 54% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 54% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 49% -15.3%
15% -23.9% 40% -23.5%
20% -31.3% 32% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$29 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$2,788
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses650 / 463
Est. fees paid−$408
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1113 / 1120
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Julia Grabher 71¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+41%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Marton Fucsovics 34¢ 36¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Eva Lys 56¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Magdalena Frech 53¢ 34¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-35%)
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Mia Ristic 57¢ 60¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Lucrezia Stefanini 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $17 +$8 +46%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$1 +32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 +$7 +152%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $3 +$10 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +60%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -76%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 +$60 +2603%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $1 $0 +27%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $1 $0 +26%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $3 +$1 +24%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $4 +$2 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +46%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $6 +$6 +105%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $2 +$2 +83%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $6 −$1 -20%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $6 +$2 +30%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $1 +$1 +52%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2 +$3 +165%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $3 +$3 +101%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Perugia: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Timofey Skatov Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $2 +$2 +124%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 57¢ $2 8m
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Lucrezia Stefanini 61¢ $1 19m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 34¢ $3 40m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 56¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 53¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 54¢ $1 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Julia Grabher 71¢ $3 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 64¢ $1 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 39¢ $5 8h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 8h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 75¢ $2 9h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $8 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $5 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $6 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $1 10h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 36¢ $2 12h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 55¢ $2 12h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $2 12h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 13h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2 14h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $3 14h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $1 16h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 17h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $4 17h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $1 21h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $3 29h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $5 30h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 30h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $2 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.47 · official $40.67 (match) · 3500 history records