Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:53:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DC 0xdcdb…41b4 crypto 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$123 (+0%) realized +$123 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate94%82W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$10
14 days+$111
30 days+$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$51
other 5% −$36
tech 3% +$95
sports 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 40 +1.1% -8.5% 98% 2% -8.9%
≤90d 75 -0.9% -10.3% 93% 1% -9.3%
all 87 -0.2% -9.7% 94% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -9.2%
10% -18.4% 2% -17.9%
15% -26.3% 1% -25.8%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$568) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$18 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized+$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses82 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 89
History coverage128d
Avg bet$352
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $206 $206 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $942 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $941 +$1 +0%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 18 $497 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $392 $0 +0%
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 18 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $935 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $934 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $933 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $633 +$57 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $169 +$38 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $279 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $394 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $149 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $400 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $569 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $530 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $303 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $529 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $831 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $431 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $401 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $830 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $400 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $399 +$1 +0%
Alba Berlin vs. Brose Bamberg May 30 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? May 30 $700 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? May 29 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $398 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $450 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $66 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 28 $375 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $180 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $640 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $568 +$1 +0%
Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026? May 25 $251 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $792 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 22? May 22 $815 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $640 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $813 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $802 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16? May 16 $599 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $801 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 14 $801 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? May 13 $748 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12? May 12 $799 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 11 $340 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11? May 11 $457 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $37 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $942 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $941 2d
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $392 3d
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $497 3d
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 95¢ $48 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $935 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $934 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $933 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 99¢ $690 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 58¢ $206 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 60¢ $37 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 90¢ $633 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $32 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $394 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 43¢ $132 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $278 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $2 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $400 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $149 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $569 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $31 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $500 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $303 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $8 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $5 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $516 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.47 · official $243.47 (match) · 206 history records