Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdcda…6efa crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$33 (+6%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate51%20W / 19L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$6
other 21% −$2
sports 9% +$37
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 25% +1.6%
≤30d 23 +1.1% -8.6% 48% 26% +0.9%
≤90d 23 +1.1% -8.6% 48% 26% +0.9%
all 39 -8.4% -17.1% 51% 31% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 31% -1.5%
10% -25.1% 18% -11.0%
15% -32.3% 15% -19.6%
20% -38.9% 10% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses20 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage100d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$1 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $55 $0 -1%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 +$41 +283%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +84%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $16 +$1 +9%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -92%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $56 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 10 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 10 $1 −$1 -99%
WTT - Men's Singles: Anton Kaellberg vs Tomokazu Harimoto Mar 10 $5 $0 +6%
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Saint Mary's Gaels: O/U 150.5 Mar 10 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Clippers Mar 10 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 09 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Trump say "Gas" or "Gasoline" during Monday press conference? Mar 09 $1 $0 -13%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 10? Mar 09 $1 $0 -30%
Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during Monday press conference? Mar 09 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 09 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 09 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $55 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $55 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $14 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 70¢ $14 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 62¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 44¢ $6 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records