Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:12:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdcd2…dae3 crypto 958 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (225 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,045 (+20%) realized +$2,045 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate40%433W / 650L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day225.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (225 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 435 -20.9% -28.4% 33% 25% -43.4%
≤30d 1083 -9.4% -18.0% 40% 26% -23.1%
≤90d 1083 -9.4% -18.0% 40% 26% -23.1%
all 1083 -9.4% -18.0% 40% 26% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover225.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 26% -23.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 18% -30.4%
15% -33.0% 14% -37.1%
20% -39.6% 11% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,045
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses433 / 650
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1083 / 958
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day225.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1083 Trades
no open positions (289 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records