Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:10:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

DC 0xdcd2…0381 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$637 (-9%) realized −$449 · open −$188

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip

Net edge+40%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%6W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$219per market

Trades / day19.1pace

Fees−$119est.

Kalshi-fit77%portable

Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)+51.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+67.3%	+51.3%	29%	29%	+11.6%
≤30d	21	+67.3%	+51.3%	29%	29%	+11.6%
≤90d	21	+67.3%	+51.3%	29%	29%	+11.6%
all	21	+67.3%	+51.3%	29%	29%	+11.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover19.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+51.3%	29%	+11.6%
10%	+36.9%	29%	+0.9%
15%	+23.6%	29%	-8.8%
20%	+11.5%	24%	-17.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +67% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -70% → late +192% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$632 vs −$169 · ×3.74 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$85

Realized−$449

Unrealized−$188

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses6 / 15

Est. fees paid−$119

Open positions3

Markets (closed)21 / 31

History coverage4d

Avg bet$219

Trades / day19.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Yes	17¢	14¢	$63	$50	−$13 (-21%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	8¢	6¢	$50	$34	−$16 (-31%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	9z	27¢	0¢	$160	$0	−$159 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 18	$31	+$416	+1349%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$41	−$36	-88%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 18	$33	−$20	-61%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$398	−$276	-69%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$91	−$26	-29%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$490	+$739	+151%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will N	Jun 17	$171	+$495	+290%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$324	+$833	+257%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria	Jun 16	$167	−$167	-100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5	Jun 16	$222	−$62	-28%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$224	+$986	+441%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$721	−$711	-99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$612	−$57	-9%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 15	$745	+$321	+43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Jun 15	$122	−$90	-74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Jun 15	$26	−$25	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Jun 15	$235	−$125	-53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Jun 15	$211	−$72	-34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Jun 15	$449	−$325	-72%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?	Jun 15	$401	−$397	-99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$326	−$143	-44%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? AND Exact Score: Canada 2 -	BUY	2¢	$41	48m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$65	51m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	8¢	$51	51m
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL Yes	100¢	$447	1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	SELL Yes	1¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	7¢	$31	1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	7¢	$41	1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	SELL Yes	5¢	$13	1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will	BUY	23¢	$162	1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$33	1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	1¢	$12	1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	2¢	$20	1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	12¢	$81	1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	12¢	$64	1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	SELL Yes	6¢	$64	1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	8¢	$91	1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	10¢	$90	1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	12¢	$252	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY 9z	27¢	$163	8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end	BUY	5¢	$32	13h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND W	BUY	3¢	$7	21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND	BUY	6¢	$26	22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND W	BUY	8¢	$82	29h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria	SELL	0¢	$0	2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will N	BUY	25¢	$171	2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY	39¢	$490	2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria	BUY	7¢	$167	2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY	27¢	$324	2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	7¢	$159	2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	9¢	$222	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.70 · official $293.29 · 75 history records