Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:40:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DC 0xdcd1…5792 sports 48 markets active 3h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$120 (+5%) realized +$120 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%27W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$32
other 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 34 -20.5% -28.0% 56% 50% -7.7%
≤90d 43 -13.2% -21.4% 60% 53% -7.2%
all 48 -13.5% -21.7% 56% 50% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 50% -8.1%
10% -29.2% 42% -16.9%
15% -36.1% 31% -24.9%
20% -42.3% 25% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$30 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses27 / 21
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage107d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 25 $287 +$1 +0%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$6 +19%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $28 −$20 -73%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $21 −$21 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $51 +$30 +59%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$12 +60%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$12 +60%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $40 +$15 +36%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $13 −$3 -23%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $20 −$11 -52%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $8 −$8 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $20 +$8 +38%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $108 +$10 +9%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $20 +$7 +33%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $155 +$84 +54%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $35 +$22 +62%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $15 −$11 -76%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $101 +$20 +20%
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $100 +$11 +11%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $46 −$45 -99%
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $40 −$10 -25%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 07 $66 −$50 -76%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $41 −$15 -37%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $20 +$19 +95%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $60 +$13 +22%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $20 +$11 +52%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 05 $34 +$14 +40%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs Jun 03 $25 +$13 +52%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 1 Winner May 27 $12 −$12 -99%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante May 27 $20 +$7 +34%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 3 Winner May 26 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner May 23 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 23 $101 +$31 +31%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO5) - Circuit May 21 $8 +$2 +24%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner May 16 $42 +$4 +10%
LoL: Shifters vs Galions (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Play May 15 $20 +$16 +77%
LoL: Myth Esports vs The Bandits - Game 1 Winner May 14 $26 −$20 -75%
LoL: Apex Mission Impossible vs Blue Otter - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $100 −$98 -98%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs RMD Gaming (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Reg Apr 23 $20 +$11 +55%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 07 $176 +$60 +34%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs EC BANGA (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Mar 17 $270 −$94 -35%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 27.5 Mar 14 $85 +$215 +253%
LeBron James: Assists O/U 5.5 Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Keyonte George: Points O/U 23.5 Mar 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 100¢ $287 3h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 65¢ $20 9d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 100¢ $36 10d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 84¢ $30 10d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & SELL LOS 100¢ $39 11d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY LOS 18¢ $7 11d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 54¢ $15 11d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 18¢ $5 11d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Anubis Gaming 38¢ $21 12d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali SELL LOS 100¢ $81 13d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 100¢ $32 13d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 62¢ $20 13d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL LOUD 99¢ $32 13d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOUD 61¢ $20 13d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali BUY LOS 62¢ $51 13d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 100¢ $55 14d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 67¢ $20 14d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 79¢ $20 14d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY paiN Gaming 48¢ $15 14d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner SELL LOUD 99¢ $27 14d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner BUY Fluxo W7M 14¢ $3 14d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner BUY LOUD 37¢ $10 14d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner SELL Fluxo W7M 23¢ $10 14d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner BUY Fluxo W7M 46¢ $20 14d
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 Winner BUY Fluxo W7M 23¢ $8 16d
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner SELL RED Canids 100¢ $28 16d
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 72¢ $20 16d
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 100¢ $89 16d
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 58¢ $29 16d
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 79¢ $101 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records