trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +1.7% | -8.0% | 100% | 0% | -8.0% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +1.7% | -8.0% | 100% | 0% | -8.0% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +2.1% | -7.7% | 71% | 64% | -0.2% |
| all | 15 | +2.2% | -7.6% | 73% | 60% | -0.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.6% | 60% | -0.4% |
| 10% | -16.4% | 27% | -9.9% |
| 15% | -24.5% | 7% | -18.6% |
| 20% | -31.9% | 0% | -26.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? | Yes | 33¢ | 33¢ | $25 | $25 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? | Jun 22 | $100 | +$2 | +2% |
| Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | May 20 | $61 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 30 | $15 | −$14 | -95% |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 27 | $5 | −$3 | -63% |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? | Apr 24 | $80 | +$16 | +20% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 24 | $45 | +$18 | +40% |
| Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? | Apr 24 | $10 | +$2 | +16% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 12 | $30 | +$4 | +13% |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? | Apr 11 | $39 | +$5 | +14% |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? | Apr 10 | $58 | +$16 | +27% |
| Ethereum flipped in 2026? | Apr 09 | $14 | −$4 | -28% |
| Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? | Apr 03 | $10 | +$3 | +33% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Apr 03 | $30 | +$5 | +18% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Apr 02 | $10 | +$3 | +35% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? | Mar 23 | $15 | +$1 | +4% |