Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:38:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DC 0xdccf…be80 crypto 1403 markets active 6d ago coverage 55d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$162 (+4%) realized +$165 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate42%583W / 819L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day51.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$28
14 days−$16
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$25
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -33.1% -39.5% 23% 23% -43.1%
≤30d 225 -4.5% -13.6% 36% 35% -9.0%
≤90d 1402 +2.1% -7.6% 42% 31% -8.9%
all 1402 +2.1% -7.6% 42% 31% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 31% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 22% -17.6%
15% -24.5% 17% -25.6%
20% -31.9% 14% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$165
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses583 / 819
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1402 / 1403
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day51.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1402 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 158 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$4 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$4 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$5 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$4 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$4 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$5 +218%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.91 · official $6.91 (match) · 3500 history records