Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:53:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdcc5…e54c other 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$91 (-10%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$125
7 days−$93
14 days−$93
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$94
crypto 3% +$21
sports 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -22.5% -29.9% 42% 33% -11.8%
≤30d 12 -22.5% -29.9% 42% 33% -11.8%
≤90d 12 -22.5% -29.9% 42% 33% -11.8%
all 12 -22.5% -29.9% 42% 33% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 33% -11.8%
10% -36.6% 25% -20.3%
15% -42.7% 25% -28.0%
20% -48.3% 17% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$34 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage3d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 +$21 +68%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $122 +$7 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 −$20 -20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $123 −$95 -77%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$20 -66%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $122 +$16 +13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $62 +$66 +107%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 −$5 -15%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $102 +$37 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 20m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 94¢ $52 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $31 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $129 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $122 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $31 19h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 20h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $52 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 53¢ $82 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $102 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 15¢ $25 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $11 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $102 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 97¢ $70 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $68 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $122 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $127 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $62 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 54¢ $20 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $80 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 93¢ $25 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $34 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $102 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.52 · official $49.52 (match) · 30 history records