Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:51:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DC 0xdcc4…b856 crypto 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$420 (-6%) realized −$420 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%27W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$91
14 days−$173
30 days−$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$123
finance 11% −$34
crypto 10% −$176
other 9% −$4
tech 5% −$12
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -15.1% -23.2% 0% 0% -12.5%
≤30d 27 +124.7% +103.3% 15% 11% -13.7%
≤90d 27 +124.7% +103.3% 15% 11% -13.7%
all 121 +10.3% -0.2% 22% 21% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 21% -16.8%
10% -9.7% 21% -24.8%
15% -18.5% 21% -32.0%
20% -26.5% 21% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$420
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses27 / 94
Open positions9
Markets (closed)121 / 130
History coverage120d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 66¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+45%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 73¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+32%)
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 80¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 71¢ 82¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? No 57¢ 66¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 67¢ 52¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 27¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 19¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 Jun 19 $16 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 19 $126 −$3 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $149 −$2 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 17 $64 −$2 -3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $320 −$6 -2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $193 −$4 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $1,014 −$10 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $84 −$51 -61%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $232 −$3 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $402 −$5 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 14 $121 −$4 -3%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $31 −$1 -4%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $101 −$23 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $196 −$6 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $76 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $92 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $80 −$1 -1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $56 −$2 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 10 $437 +$8 +2%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $140 −$4 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 09 $266 −$15 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 08 $139 −$27 -19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 08 $40 −$7 -19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 07 $190 −$6 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Mar 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Mar 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Mar 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Mar 15 $4 +$6 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Mar 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Mar 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Mar 13 $4 +$6 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Mar 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Mar 12 $3 +$7 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Mar 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Mar 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Mar 12 $4 +$6 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Mar 06 $3 +$6 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Mar 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Mar 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Mar 05 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Mar 05 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 05 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 34¢ $35 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 35¢ $36 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 63¢ $64 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 67¢ $69 4h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 SELL No 71¢ $16 44h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 BUY No 72¢ $16 44h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $16 2d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $19 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 65¢ $16 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 66¢ $36 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 67¢ $34 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 67¢ $20 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 57¢ $24 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 58¢ $3 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 58¢ $1 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 58¢ $26 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 42¢ $30 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 46¢ $14 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 39¢ $39 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 39¢ $40 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 58¢ $47 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 58¢ $1 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 58¢ $9 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 72¢ $10 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 74¢ $11 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $89 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.80 · official $0.00 · 413 history records