Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:47:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdcc3…d8e9 crypto 1717 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d only
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+0%) realized +$48 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate7%126W / 1582L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day51.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$45
sports 3% +$20
other 2% −$12
world 0% −$12
politics 0% +$3
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1708 +1.0% -8.6% 7% 2% -9.2%
≤30d 1708 +1.0% -8.6% 7% 2% -9.2%
≤90d 1708 +1.0% -8.6% 7% 2% -9.2%
all 1708 +1.0% -8.6% 7% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 2% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 2% -17.9%
15% -25.4% 2% -25.8%
20% -32.7% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
0.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$48
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses126 / 1582
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1708 / 1717
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day51.6
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1708 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? No 72¢ 98¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+35%)
Will the announcers say "Championship" during UFC 250? Yes 98¢ 90¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 14? No 41¢ 99¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+141%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 52¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Under 40¢ 40¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 40¢ 40¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? Yes 69¢ 40¢ $6 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Will Brayden McNabb lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in assists? No 89¢ 2¢ $14 $0 −$13 (-98%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Triangle" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Amad Diallo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $8 +$4 +46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 +$5 +57%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$6 +48%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $8 +$6 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 +$7 +86%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 +$5 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +70%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $6 +$3 +52%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $4 +$4 +97%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 +$2 +40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 +$12 +188%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $4 +$9 +216%
Thor Akureyri vs. IBV Vestmannaeyjar: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Thor Akureyri vs. IBV Vestmannaeyjar: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 +$3 +52%
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$8 +105%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -13%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $4 +$2 +57%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will De'Aaron Fox lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will Jalen Brunson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Jun 14 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Julian Champagnie lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will Jalen Brunson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$19 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brayden McNabb lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in assists? BUY No 89¢ $7 38m
Will Brayden McNabb lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in assists? BUY No 89¢ $7 38m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Will the announcers say "Championship" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 1h
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Over 68¢ $8 1h
Will the announcers say "Triangle" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 2h
Will Amad Diallo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 2h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $12 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $15 3h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 40¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $8 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $17 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 6h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $7 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $12 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $13 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.57 · official $60.58 (match) · 3500 history records