Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:57:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DC 0xdcc2…8b9b sports 543 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$510 (-2%) realized −$510 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate41%221W / 322L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day57.8pace
Fees−$282est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 46d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$4,672
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -27.0% -33.9% 45% 36% -27.2%
≤30d 379 -43.2% -48.6% 34% 28% -39.1%
≤90d 543 -33.0% -39.4% 41% 31% -35.5%
all 543 -33.0% -39.4% 41% 31% -35.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.4% 31% -35.5%
10% ← realistic here -45.2% 22% -41.6%
15% -50.5% 13% -47.3%
20% -55.3% 9% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$20 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$510
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses221 / 322
Est. fees paid−$282
Open positions0
Markets (closed)543 / 543
History coverage46d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day57.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 543 Trades
no open positions (214 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $216 −$9 -4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $35 +$35 +100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $40 +$30 +74%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $59 +$40 +68%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $95 −$34 -36%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $58 −$19 -33%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $116 −$19 -17%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $32 −$31 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $74 +$49 +66%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $90 +$31 +35%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $24 +$41 +173%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $84 −$65 -77%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $118 −$56 -48%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 14 $88 −$47 -53%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $69 −$18 -25%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $18 −$8 -46%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $27 −$17 -63%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$9 +17%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $37 −$5 -14%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $105 +$45 +43%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $106 −$87 -82%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $120 −$52 -44%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5) Jun 14 $16 −$8 -52%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $24 +$26 +104%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 14 $36 −$3 -10%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $4 +$3 +67%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $32 +$8 +27%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $28 +$2 +6%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $31 +$9 +27%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $24 +$6 +24%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $110 −$40 -36%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $53 −$30 -56%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $48 −$14 -29%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $81 −$17 -22%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $115 −$41 -36%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $48 −$25 -52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$13 -44%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $71 −$25 -36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $140 −$29 -21%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs aimclub - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$1 -22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $28 +$2 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $110 −$75 -68%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Jun 13 $13 +$11 +82%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $38 +$12 +31%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $47 +$13 +28%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $33 −$18 -56%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $15 +$5 +30%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 Jun 13 $11 +$38 +344%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 7¢ $6 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 23¢ $23 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $22 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $7 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $60 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $64 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $40 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $70 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $70 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $100 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $12 7h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $40 7h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $8 7h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $3 7h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $10 8h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $20 8h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $2 8h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $9 8h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $31 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $100 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 25¢ $8 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 26¢ $8 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 34¢ $22 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $17 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $12 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $29 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 36¢ $13 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $5 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $8 11h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $5 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2911 history records