Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:39:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DC 0xdcc0…6872 sports 928 markets active 0h ago coverage 115d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 115d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,533 (+10%) realized +$6,565 · open −$32
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%488W / 439L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Fees−$645est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 115d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$1,919
other 3% +$79
crypto 0% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -2.1% -11.4% 54% 48% -7.6%
≤30d 339 +2.9% -6.9% 55% 51% -3.1%
≤90d 715 -1.9% -11.2% 52% 48% -7.8%
all 927 +0.5% -9.1% 53% 47% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 47% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 45% -15.6%
15% -25.7% 42% -23.8%
20% -33.0% 37% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$57 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$6,565
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses488 / 439
Est. fees paid−$645
Open positions1
Markets (closed)927 / 928
History coverage115d ⚠
Avg bet$72
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 927 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Yes 45¢ 12¢ $45 $12 −$32 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $50 −$50 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 28 $83 +$90 +109%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Jun 28 $50 −$49 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Tor Jun 28 $49 −$48 -98%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 28 $110 +$90 +82%
Set 1 Winner: Bergs vs Humbert Jun 28 $135 +$65 +48%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 28 $1 $0 +20%
ITF Maanshan: Meiqi Guo vs Evialina Laskevich Jun 28 $144 +$56 +39%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 28 $45 −$34 -75%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 28 $54 −$54 -100%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic Jun 28 $44 −$44 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. San Fra Jun 28 $48 −$48 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 28 $49 −$49 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $42 −$42 -100%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 28 $65 −$65 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 28 $96 −$96 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $136 −$136 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $98 −$98 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 28 $124 −$124 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 28 $112 −$112 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 28 $106 −$106 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $67 −$67 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 28 $80 −$80 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $147 −$101 -68%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Jun 28 $54 $0 +0%
ITF Kayseri: Alana Subasic vs Duru Soke Jun 28 $98 −$98 -100%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $135 +$65 +48%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 28 $104 +$96 +92%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 28 $2 +$1 +54%
Panama vs. England: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $111 +$84 +75%
Panama vs. England: England 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $2 +$3 +108%
Will Shara Magomedov win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $102 +$3 +2%
Will Ikram Aliskerov win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $17 +$13 +79%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $69 +$100 +144%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $4 +$5 +138%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $97 +$103 +107%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $120 +$80 +67%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 27 $84 +$116 +138%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 27 $100 +$100 +100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 27 $43 +$27 +61%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $115 +$85 +73%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Doosan Bears Jun 27 $114 +$86 +75%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka Jun 27 $86 $0 +0%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $116 +$21 +18%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $143 +$57 +40%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $109 +$91 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY Yes 45¢ $45 24m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $46 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 1h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 40¢ $38 2h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Under 80¢ $59 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 34¢ $3 3h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Under 40¢ $12 3h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Under 40¢ $2 3h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. BUY No 49¢ $50 5h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Tor BUY No 48¢ $49 6h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 40¢ $74 7h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 40¢ $6 7h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY Los Angeles Thieves 55¢ $110 17h
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) SELL Deep Cross Gaming 55¢ $54 17h
ITF Kayseri: Alana Subasic vs Duru Soke BUY Alana Subasic 49¢ $98 17h
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) BUY Deep Cross Gaming 54¢ $23 17h
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) BUY Deep Cross Gaming 54¢ $12 17h
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) BUY Deep Cross Gaming 54¢ $3 17h
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) BUY Deep Cross Gaming 54¢ $11 17h
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) BUY Deep Cross Gaming 54¢ $6 17h
ITF Maanshan: Meiqi Guo vs Evialina Laskevich BUY Evialina Laskevich 72¢ $18 18h
ITF Maanshan: Meiqi Guo vs Evialina Laskevich BUY Evialina Laskevich 72¢ $36 18h
ITF Maanshan: Meiqi Guo vs Evialina Laskevich BUY Evialina Laskevich 72¢ $31 18h
ITF Maanshan: Meiqi Guo vs Evialina Laskevich BUY Evialina Laskevich 72¢ $30 18h
ITF Maanshan: Meiqi Guo vs Evialina Laskevich BUY Evialina Laskevich 72¢ $6 18h
ITF Maanshan: Meiqi Guo vs Evialina Laskevich BUY Evialina Laskevich 72¢ $13 18h
ITF Maanshan: Meiqi Guo vs Evialina Laskevich BUY Evialina Laskevich 72¢ $10 18h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 83¢ $1 19h
Set 1 Winner: Bergs vs Humbert BUY Humbert 67¢ $65 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.50 · official $8.50 · 3500 history records