Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:13:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdcbf…1bf1 crypto 461 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (138 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10,500 (+6%) realized +$10,500 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate82%414W / 93L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$360per market
Trades / day137.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,436
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (138 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 -22.2% -29.6% 62% 12% -21.5%
≤30d 507 -2.0% -11.3% 82% 13% -12.6%
≤90d 507 -2.0% -11.3% 82% 13% -12.6%
all 507 -2.0% -11.3% 82% 13% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover137.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 13% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 7% -21.0%
15% -27.5% 5% -28.6%
20% -34.6% 4% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$176 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$10,500
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses414 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)507 / 461
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$360
Trades / day137.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 507 Trades
no open positions (84 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $43 −$86 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $870 −$870 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $391 −$781 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$56 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $197 −$394 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $421 −$421 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $581 −$581 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $187 −$187 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$6 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $195 −$195 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $608 −$608 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $325 −$325 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $295 −$295 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $952 −$952 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $724 −$724 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $495 −$395 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $1,492 +$58 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$68 +317%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $11 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $23 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $40 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $22 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $52 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $24 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $21 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $11 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $40 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $22 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $22 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $13 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $8 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $36 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $8 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $56 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $8 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $8 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.36 · official $103.03 (match) · 3500 history records