Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:34:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdcbf…3832 crypto 370 markets active 5d ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$393 (+10%) realized +$393 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%184W / 186L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day40.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$175
14 days+$265
30 days+$290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$290
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -6.6% -15.5% 49% 49% +3.3%
≤30d 370 -4.9% -14.0% 50% 50% -2.7%
≤90d 370 -4.9% -14.0% 50% 50% -2.7%
all 370 -4.9% -14.0% 50% 50% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 50% -2.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 50% -12.0%
15% -29.7% 50% -20.5%
20% -36.6% 49% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$393
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses184 / 186
Open positions0
Markets (closed)370 / 370
History coverage10d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day40.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 370 Trades
no open positions (171 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $522 +$425 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $251 −$251 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$8 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $28 +$25 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$8 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $522 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $251 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $84 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $28 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 612 history records