Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:20:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DC 0xdcbb…4eb6 other 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$630 (+23%) realized +$694 · open −$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$171
7 days+$229
14 days+$781
30 days+$781
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$376
sports 22% +$134
crypto 19% +$332
world 5% −$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +26.2% +14.2% 55% 55% +2.6%
≤30d 13 +33.4% +20.7% 62% 62% +19.6%
≤90d 13 +33.4% +20.7% 62% 62% +19.6%
all 13 +33.4% +20.7% 62% 62% +19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.7% 62% +19.6%
10% +9.1% 62% +8.1%
15% -1.4% 62% -2.3%
20% -11.1% 54% -11.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +49% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$195 vs −$156 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$694
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage10d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $212 $149 −$64 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $203 +$110 +54%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $30 +$61 +206%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $127 −$125 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $66 +$152 +228%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $255 +$386 +152%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $127 −$125 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $127 +$78 +61%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $258 +$222 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $358 −$355 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $127 −$125 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $406 +$432 +106%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $303 +$120 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 91¢ $313 26m
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 23¢ $31 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $30 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $127 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 81¢ $218 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $15 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $51 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $51 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $127 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 77¢ $201 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 77¢ $4 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $255 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 47¢ $127 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $358 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $258 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14 BUY 21¢ $72 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $127 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $838 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $406 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $303 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $218 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.75 · official $178.75 · 35 history records