Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:51:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DC 0xdcb9…1879 weather 733 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,589 (+2%) realized +$3,589 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate97%710W / 22L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day56.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$115
7 days+$454
14 days+$1,052
30 days+$2,206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$4,740
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +10.6% +0.1% 100% 15% -7.8%
≤30d 304 +2.6% -7.2% 97% 10% -7.8%
≤90d 732 +3.5% -6.4% 97% 8% -7.6%
all 732 +3.5% -6.4% 97% 8% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 8% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 6% -16.4%
15% -23.5% 5% -24.5%
20% -31.0% 3% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×77.27 per $1 lost it wins $77.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$3,589
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses710 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)732 / 733
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$297
Trades / day56.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 732 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $157 $157 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 26? Jun 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 26? Jun 26 $377 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 26? Jun 26 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 26? Jun 26 $295 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $142 +$18 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1,040 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $123 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? Jun 26 $35 +$11 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 25? Jun 26 $86 +$54 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 25? Jun 25 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 25? Jun 25 $332 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 25? Jun 25 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on June 25? Jun 25 $1,996 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1,992 +$6 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June Jun 25 $1,595 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on June 25? Jun 25 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 24? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 24 $609 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $396 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $223 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $187 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 24? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? Jun 24 $2,375 +$23 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 24? Jun 24 $793 +$11 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1,539 +$7 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 23 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 23? Jun 23 $77 +$83 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 23 $125 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $7 +$3 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $48 +$112 +236%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $113 +$16 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $725 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $166 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 23? Jun 23 $175 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $396 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 23? Jun 23 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $397 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $137 +$23 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 22? Jun 22 $393 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $174 +$13 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $11 +$9 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? BUY Yes 88¢ $141 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? BUY Yes 87¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $64 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $13 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $304 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $12 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $189 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $20 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $13 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $84 15h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $67 17h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $57 17h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $295 18h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $295 18h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $160 19h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $118 19h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $53 19h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $28 19h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $201 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.82 · official $156.82 (match) · 3500 history records