Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:10:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DC
0xdcb8…1c45
weather · 654 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$395 -31%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$377 · open −$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$26
Realized−$377
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses131 / 482
Open positions41
Markets (closed)613 / 654
History coverage115d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 41 History 613 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$1
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 13? No 34¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+194%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? No 54¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+85%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? No 56¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+78%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? No 57¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+75%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? No 62¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 55¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+56%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? No 71¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? No 72¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? No 74¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? No 69¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? No 59¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? No 75¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? No 62¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? No 60¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? No 61¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 13? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 13? Yes 20¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? No 28¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 13? No 37¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +66%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +66%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 11? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +185%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 5? Jun 08 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 5? Jun 08 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 5? Jun 08 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 5? Jun 08 $2 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 5? Jun 08 $2 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 5? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5? Jun 08 $2 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 5? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +81%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? Jun 08 $1 +$3 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 3? Jun 05 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 3? Jun 05 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 3? Jun 05 $1 $0 +33%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 3? Jun 05 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 3? Jun 05 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 3? Jun 05 $1 $0 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 34% −$91
other 27% −$141
crypto 16% −$84
sports 13% −$52
world 3% −$10
culture 2% −$21
politics 2% +$22
tech 1% −$5
finance 1% −$1
economics 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 69¢ $1 40m
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 61¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 59¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 60¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 62¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 74¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 56¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 80¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 55¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 62¢ $1 13h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 28¢ $1 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 14h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 17h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 13? BUY No 37¢ $1 17h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 34¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 71¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 21h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 12? BUY No 53¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-41.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -10.2% -18.8% 49% 44% -16.0%
≤30d 247 -13.0% -21.3% 41% 39% -14.3%
≤90d 260 +8.0% -2.3% 42% 40% -1.8%
all 613 -35.3% -41.5% 21% 20% -41.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.5% 20% -41.8%
10% -47.1% 19% -47.4%
15% -52.2% 16% -52.5%
20% -56.9% 13% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.78 · official $25.79 (match) · 1279 history records