Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DC 0xdcb7…b7d0 crypto 543 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$86 (-1%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate95%515W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$185
14 days−$185
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$90
other 0% $0
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -17.6% -25.4% 80% 0% -16.1%
≤30d 472 -2.3% -11.6% 94% 1% -11.0%
≤90d 543 -0.9% -10.4% 95% 2% -10.5%
all 543 -0.9% -10.4% 95% 2% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 2% -10.5%
10% -19.0% 1% -19.1%
15% -26.8% 1% -26.9%
20% -34.0% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses515 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)543 / 543
History coverage79d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 543 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $71 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $68 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $69 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $66 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $65 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $63 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $61 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $67 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $66 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $65 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $62 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $56 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $54 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $53 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $4 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $65 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $63 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $57 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $29 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $42 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $18 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $68 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $69 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $66 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $65 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $64 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $63 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $61 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $60 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $67 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $66 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $65 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $35 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $34 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $28 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $60 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $29 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $31 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $12 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $46 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $38 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1216 history records