Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:19:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DC
0xdcb5…0dbc
other · 47 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$670 +32%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$103 · open +$480
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,760
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$480
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions7
Markets (closed)33 / 47
History coverage589d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%
Chart Positions 7 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$33
14 days+$33
30 days+$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $1,037 $1,540 +$503 (+49%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $120 $108 −$12 (-10%)
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $116 $106 −$10 (-8%)
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Desire Doue win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Federico Valverde win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Sporting CP 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Vance" or "Rubio" during Address to the Nation? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Under 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 +$8 +38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$25 +124%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -75%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 Jun 12 $5 −$3 -58%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $3 $0 -10%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $80 +$119 +149%
Will Lautaro Martinez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 23 $1 $0 +65%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 18 $1 +$5 +767%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 −$4 -75%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $5 +$9 +180%
Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Apr 28 $1 +$1 +247%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Apr 28 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Apr 28 $1 $0 +7%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Apr 27 $1 +$1 +80%
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Apr 16 $0 +$1 +2200%
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 2 - 1 FC Bayern München? Apr 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $31 +$68 +218%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $57 −$27 -48%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 14 $5 −$2 -32%
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Sporting CP 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Trump say "Vance" or "Rubio" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $7 +$8 +111%
Will France win on 2025-10-13? Mar 30 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Trump resign in 2025? Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will France win on 2026-03-29? Mar 30 $100 +$38 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 85% +$601
sports 9% +$94
politics 5% −$112
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $28 13h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in BUY 16¢ $2 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 46¢ $10 21h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in BUY 16¢ $5 29h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND W BUY 27¢ $5 31h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 31h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 33¢ $5 31h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 10¢ $5 41h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 42h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 47h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 SELL 12¢ $2 47h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 46¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 18¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 28¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 30¢ $3 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $3 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 5d
Will Lautaro Martinez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 21d
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+70.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +4.8% -5.1% 40% 40% +26.0%
≤30d 13 +79.2% +62.1% 54% 54% +76.5%
≤90d 33 +88.0% +70.1% 45% 42% +14.7%
all 33 +88.0% +70.1% 45% 42% +14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +70.1% 42% +14.7%
10% +53.8% 42% +3.7%
15% +38.9% 42% -6.3%
20% +25.3% 36% -15.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,759.56 · official $1,759.56 (match) · 199 history records