Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DC 0xdcb2…02b0 sports 120 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,824 (+35%) realized +$3,541 · open −$717
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%38W / 69L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$474now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$1,885
other 44% +$489
crypto 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 +20.3% +8.8% 36% 36% +29.6%
≤30d 107 +20.3% +8.8% 36% 36% +29.6%
≤90d 107 +20.3% +8.8% 36% 36% +29.6%
all 107 +20.3% +8.8% 36% 36% +29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.8% 36% +29.6%
10% ← realistic here -1.6% 36% +17.2%
15% -11.1% 36% +5.9%
20% -19.8% 36% -4.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$40 · ×3.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$474
Realized+$3,541
Unrealized−$717
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses38 / 69
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions13
Markets (closed)107 / 120
History coverage5d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 60¢ 57¢ $300 $288 −$12 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 28¢ 6¢ $98 $19 −$79 (-80%)
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Yes 25¢ 10¢ $30 $13 −$17 (-58%)
Federico Valverde: 2+ goals Yes 5¢ 7¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+40%)
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Yes 40¢ 3¢ $30 $2 −$28 (-92%)
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Uruguay 20¢ 1¢ $22 $1 −$21 (-96%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $209 $0 −$209 (-100%)
Uruguay leading at halftime? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 21¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 30¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $448 +$275 +62%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $49 +$50 +102%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $31 +$61 +198%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $71 −$70 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$29 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $254 +$237 +93%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 +$134 +262%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $153 +$396 +258%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $140 +$147 +105%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $51 +$40 +79%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$19 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $4 −$3 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $304 +$251 +83%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $21 +$179 +874%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$176 +172%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $51 +$96 +188%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $41 +$194 +474%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $12 +$42 +343%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $15 +$50 +325%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $51 +$63 +124%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 +$16 +510%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 7¢ $10 2m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 3m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 60¢ $304 3m
Federico Valverde: 2+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $31 1h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $31 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 20¢ $23 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $90 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $48 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $41 2h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $254 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $345 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $5 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 25¢ $15 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $31 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $49 3h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $71 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 3h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 18¢ $10 4h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $51 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $10 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $51 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $30 5h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 5h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 27¢ $51 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $51 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $474.21 · official $474.21 (match) · 172 history records