Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdcb1…d231 sports 51 markets active 5h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (143 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$467 (-4%) realized −$471 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%23W / 27L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day142.9pace
Fees−$125est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,192
7 days−$620
14 days−$632
30 days−$632
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$1,081
other 18% −$1,133
world 5% −$577
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (143 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +3.2% -6.6% 47% 45% -14.5%
≤30d 50 +0.5% -9.1% 46% 44% -14.3%
≤90d 50 +0.5% -9.1% 46% 44% -14.3%
all 50 +0.5% -9.1% 46% 44% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover142.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 44% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 42% -22.5%
15% -25.7% 38% -30.0%
20% -33.0% 36% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
22.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$248 vs −$235 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized−$471
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses23 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage8d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day142.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 52¢ 54¢ $127 $131 +$4 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $40 +$3 +7%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $348 −$348 -100%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $139 −$139 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $159 +$153 +96%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $119 −$119 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $141 −$141 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $625 −$625 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $445 +$185 +41%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $132 +$138 +105%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $229 −$229 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $263 −$263 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $149 +$170 +114%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $716 +$1,036 +145%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $79 +$52 +66%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $149 +$170 +114%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $577 −$577 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $196 +$458 +234%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $185 −$185 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $134 +$90 +67%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $174 +$598 +344%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $338 −$338 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $60 +$105 +175%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $377 −$377 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $60 +$149 +250%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $60 +$149 +250%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $149 −$149 -100%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 14 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $339 +$756 +223%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $107 +$96 +90%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $270 +$87 +32%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $735 +$224 +30%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $139 −$139 -100%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $146 +$138 +95%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $294 +$273 +93%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $285 +$30 +11%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $594 −$594 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $571 +$401 +70%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $340 +$243 +71%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $99 −$99 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $155 −$155 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $40 4h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Alexandra Eala 50¢ $159 9h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 49¢ $139 10h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 76¢ $2 11h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 76¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 76¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 76¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 76¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.14 · official $131.14 (match) · 1178 history records