Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:47:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DC
0xdcaf…8229
sports · 583 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,395 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,375 · open −$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$26
Realized−$1,375
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses248 / 333
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions2
Markets (closed)581 / 583
History coverage571d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 2 History 581 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$57
30 days−$331
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 49¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Team Liquid 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Pipsqueak+4 50¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Inner Circle 53¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 1win - Game 2 Winner L1ga Team 34¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: NRG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner B8 68¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) Virtus.pro 55¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Over 64¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Heroic - Game 3 Winner Heroic 58¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Zero Tenacity 33¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner Aurora 49¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Dota 2: Aurora vs AVULUS - Game 1 Winner AVULUS 34¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Dota 2: OG vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Team Spirit 58¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Natus Vincere 39¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Natus Vincere 56¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Team Liquid 53¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) Natus Vincere 46¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 49¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 9z Team - Game 1 Winner 9z Team 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner GamerLegion 49¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Team Falcons 51¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Natus Vincere 25¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Team Spirit 32¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Natus Vincere 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $21 −$15 -72%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $21 −$20 -94%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $32 +$25 +78%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $20 −$20 -97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $53 −$50 -94%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $32 +$28 +89%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $21 +$26 +121%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $32 −$30 -94%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $61 +$48 +79%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $32 −$30 -94%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $30 −$19 -62%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $20 −$17 -86%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $21 +$6 +27%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $10 +$3 +27%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $21 −$20 -95%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $32 +$38 +120%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $31 −$30 -95%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $11 +$29 +276%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $79 +$68 +86%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 30 $13 +$6 +48%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $11 −$10 -94%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $11 +$15 +139%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $35 −$34 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $30 +$35 +114%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $30 −$20 -67%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner May 24 $20 −$19 -95%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $44 −$43 -98%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $22 −$22 -97%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner May 23 $100 −$77 -77%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $51 −$51 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner May 23 $100 −$95 -95%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 23 $37 +$13 +36%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 23 $39 +$66 +171%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 22 $31 +$39 +128%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $35 −$35 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 22 $6 −$6 -97%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 22 $26 +$35 +131%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $32 −$30 -94%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 22 $21 −$20 -94%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $41 +$48 +118%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 21 $71 +$54 +76%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 88% −$1,609
other 10% +$97
world 2% +$111
crypto 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 22m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 11¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $21 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 34¢ $21 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $21 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $56 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $32 26h
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 8¢ $15 7d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 19¢ $5 7d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $53 7d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 50¢ $32 7d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $47 7d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 41¢ $21 7d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $32 7d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 35¢ $10 8d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $10 8d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 43¢ $41 8d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $109 8d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 55¢ $61 8d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner BUY Aurora 37¢ $32 8d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner SELL TYLOO 25¢ $12 9d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL GamerLegion 8¢ $3 9d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY GamerLegion 56¢ $20 9d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner BUY TYLOO 63¢ $30 9d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Liquid 30¢ $20 9d
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $21 10d
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $21 10d
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 74¢ $21 10d
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $11 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -13.3% -21.5% 50% 50% -11.9%
≤30d 91 -14.5% -22.7% 43% 43% -20.9%
≤90d 142 -18.5% -26.3% 41% 41% -20.7%
all 581 -12.8% -21.1% 43% 42% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 42% -16.4%
10% -28.7% 40% -24.4%
15% -35.6% 37% -31.7%
20% -41.9% 33% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.78 · official $25.78 (match) · 1223 history records