Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:20:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdca9…15fd sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized +$0 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$9
other 36% −$5
weather 3% −$5
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +4.0% -5.9% 47% 47% -13.1%
≤30d 28 -2.5% -11.8% 43% 43% -10.8%
≤90d 28 -2.5% -11.8% 43% 43% -10.8%
all 28 -2.5% -11.8% 43% 43% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 43% -10.8%
10% -20.2% 39% -19.3%
15% -27.9% 39% -27.1%
20% -35.0% 29% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)28 / 32
History coverage20d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 60¢ 52¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$3 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 +$3 +72%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $4 +$3 +81%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -92%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +160%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $5 −$5 -96%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $5 +$2 +43%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $5 +$5 +92%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $5 $0 -7%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) May 28 $10 −$1 -8%
Aalesunds FK vs. Hamarkameratene: O/U 2.5 May 28 $10 −$1 -8%
ITF Wuning: Zongyu Li vs Daria Khomutsianskaya May 28 $10 +$10 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 May 28 $5 +$4 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $8 35m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $5 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $5 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $4 4h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $4 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 29h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 29h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL No 22¢ $4 29h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 27¢ $5 29h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain $0 29h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $5 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $5 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 99¢ $6 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $7 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 80¢ $5 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.20 · official $19.20 (match) · 54 history records