Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:11:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DC 0xdca5…b3fb other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate52%31W / 29L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$6
other 23% +$12
politics 18% +$6
tech 2% −$1
world 1% −$47
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +6.6% -3.6% 100% 17% -6.5%
≤30d 6 +6.6% -3.6% 100% 17% -6.5%
≤90d 27 -8.3% -17.1% 59% 26% -9.6%
all 60 -7.6% -16.4% 52% 15% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 15% -9.9%
10% -24.4% 7% -18.5%
15% -31.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -38.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses31 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage227d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? No 97¢ 97¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $112 +$1 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $33 $0 +1%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Jun 13 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic pri Jun 13 $16 +$4 +26%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 8, 2026? Jun 13 $22 +$1 +2%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Jun 13 $23 +$1 +6%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 02 $24 +$1 +6%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? May 02 $19 +$1 +4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? May 02 $19 +$5 +27%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co May 02 $46 +$8 +18%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Apr 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 25 $4 −$1 -35%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi? Apr 18 $14 −$14 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Apr 18 $23 $0 -2%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 18 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 18 $32 +$5 +16%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $23 −$15 -63%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 08 $22 +$8 +35%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $1,554 −$2 -0%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Apr 05 $15 −$2 -15%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 05 $15 +$2 +16%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 31 $1,531 −$2 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 28 $1,549 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $1,561 −$3 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 18? Mar 21 $19 $0 +2%
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15? Mar 18 $17 +$1 +8%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $1,570 +$8 +0%
Will France win the 2026 Six Nations championship? Mar 15 $17 +$3 +18%
Polymarket surpasses Robinhood on Similar Web in 2026? Mar 14 $22 +$3 +14%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? Mar 02 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am? Feb 20 $17 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 2 above $230? Feb 15 $25 +$1 +3%
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? Feb 06 $17 −$17 -100%
US strike on Mexico by January 31? Feb 06 $88 +$4 +5%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 01 $19 −$2 -12%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 01 $44 +$1 +2%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 20 $12 −$3 -25%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 20 $54 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? Jan 14 $47 $0 +0%
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025? Dec 25 $72 $0 -1%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $38 $0 +1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $32 −$6 -20%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 13 $57 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $110 1h
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $113 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $112 5d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $33 5d
Gemini 3.2 released by May 8, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $22 47d
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic pri BUY Yes 79¢ $16 47d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY Yes 94¢ $23 47d
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? BUY No $1 47d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 47d
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co BUY Yes 85¢ $46 55d
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 55d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $19 55d
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $20 55d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 55d
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 62d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 79¢ $19 62d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? SELL No 96¢ $23 62d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY Yes 78¢ $20 68d
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 71d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 94¢ $24 71d
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $23 71d
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes 86¢ $32 74d
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes 74¢ $22 74d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,553 74d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $13 74d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,554 79d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $1,529 79d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $15 82d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $1,531 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.89 · official $143.89 (match) · 157 history records