Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:08:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdca4…806f crypto 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,681 (-12%) realized −$1,680 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate36%14W / 25L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$341per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$1,246
world 37% +$132
other 1% −$7
sports 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-46.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 39 -40.9% -46.5% 36% 13% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.5% 13% -17.5%
10% -51.6% 10% -25.4%
15% -56.3% 5% -32.6%
20% -60.6% 5% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -60% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$129 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$1,680
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)39 / 42
History coverage267d
Avg bet$341
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? No 64¢ 64¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? No 61¢ 60¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 24¢ 24¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 04 $300 −$298 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 04 $124 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 04 $259 +$65 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 04 $57 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 04 $54 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 04 $62 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 04 $458 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 04 $309 +$31 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 04 $1,825 −$434 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 04 $593 +$29 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 04 $971 +$24 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 04 $700 −$577 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 04 $200 +$101 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 04 $500 +$111 +22%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $1,668 −$332 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 03 $800 +$44 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 03 $800 +$24 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 03 $189 −$187 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 03 $500 +$21 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 03 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 03 $2,048 −$214 -10%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 01 $60 −$60 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $480 +$1,628 +339%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 04 $32 −$32 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 04 $64 −$63 -98%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jan 29 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 29 $225 −$225 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 29 $219 −$219 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 26 $25 −$10 -42%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? Jan 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Odds of Khamenei out by February over 30% in January? Jan 22 $26 −$6 -24%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 19 $78 −$78 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 19 $236 −$28 -12%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 08 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Nov 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 2? Oct 02 $33 −$33 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $37 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $37 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 61¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $300 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $124 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $324 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $259 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $59 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $57 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $57 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $54 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $74 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $62 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $342 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $338 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $119 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $119 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $339 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $309 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $439 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $446 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $865 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $370 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $521 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $622 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $593 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $995 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $971 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $93 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $30 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.82 · official $108.82 (match) · 82 history records