Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:24:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdca4…5c7b politics 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 16L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$733per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$13
politics 31% −$4
sports 8% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 6 -12.0% -20.4% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 17 -4.3% -13.4% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,051) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage156d
Avg bet$733
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $1,051 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 23 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 23 $27 −$3 -12%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $3 −$2 -50%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 23 $2,295 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $1,824 −$4 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $1,356 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $1,422 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day Mar 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Feb 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $51 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 27 $1,051 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $997 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 16 $998 −$1 -0%
Will Levante win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 15 $999 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $91 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $199 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 66d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $318 80d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,050 80d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,051 88d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 88d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 88d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $2,293 88d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $22 93d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2,295 93d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1,821 95d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,355 95d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,422 95d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 95d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 95d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1,824 99d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,422 99d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,356 99d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 99d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 101d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $27 101d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day SELL No 100¢ $1 102d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 98¢ $41 128d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $20 129d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $22 129d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $15 136d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $10 137d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $5 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 154 history records